Has Venezuela’s notoriously fractured opposition not only found a candidate around who it can unite, but one who can beat the incumbent?

“Incumbents in Latin America rarely lose reelection bids,” notes Michael Penfold, an Associate Professor at the Institute for Higher Administrative Studies in Caracas. “In the last three decades, there have been only two: Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua and Hipólito Mejía in the Dominican Republic. And Venezuela is the only presidential country in the region with no term limits for its leader.”

Hugo Chávez has held power for 13 years and will pursue a further six-year term in October’s presidential election. ...